Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
